The U.S. equity REIT sector beat the S&P Capital IQ FFO-per-share estimate for full year 2015 by a median value of 0.50%, according to a March 7 analysis of reported 2015 earnings. Two shopping center and two timber REITs held places in the top 10 beats, while two hotel REITs landed in the bottom 10 misses for 2015.
Shopping center REIT Urban Edge Properties posted the largest beat for 2015 FFO per share out of all U.S. equity REITs with market caps greater than $200 million, besting its S&P Capital IQ estimate by 17.78%, or 18 cents per share.Whitestone REIT, on the other hand, recorded the largest earnings miss for the year — 24.81%, or 33 cents per share, lower than its S&P Capital IQ FFO-per-share estimate.
The top 25 REITs by market capitalization fared slightly better than the broader equity REIT sector, besting their S&P Capital IQ FFO-per-share estimates by a median of roughly 0.73%. The largest 25 REITs also consistently surpassed the broader equity REIT sector in both premium to NAV and estimated price-to-FFO throughout 2015. At the end of the fourth quarter, these largest public equity REITs traded at a consensus 0.2% premium to NAV, while the rest of the equity REITS with a market capitalization of at least $200 million achieved a median discount of 11.1%. Vornado Realty Trust posted the largest earnings beat out of the top 25 largest equity REITs by market capitalization. The company beat its 2015 S&P Capital IQ FFO-per-share estimate by 15 cents, or 2.72%. Additional top beats included Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp., which beat FFO-per-share estimates by 2.59% and 2.55%, respectively.
At the other end of the scale, Equinix Inc. recorded the largest earnings miss out of the top 25 equity REITs, missing its S&P Capital IQ FFO-per-share estimate by 99 cents, or 8.50%.